“To succeed in 2012, you need to think about how trends in the national economy tie into your local market,” said Clark Toole, president and chief operations officer (COO) of Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate Inc. in Florida. Speaking on the state’s residential market, Toole said, “Florida is such a diverse state, both geographically and culturally, that you really need to do your homework.”

Toole was one of three expert practitioners who spoke at Florida Realtors® 2012 Real Estate and Economic Forecast Conference in Orlando earlier this week.

Cynthia Shelton, 2009 president of Florida Realtors and a director at Colliers International in Orlando, discussed the commercial market, and Dean Saunders, accredited land consultant and broker-owner of Coldwell Banker Commercial Saunders Real Estate in Lakeland, covered the market for land and undeveloped property.

Toole said that key trends affecting the Florida residential market include strong demand from international buyers, a growing population – 348 people a day net growth in 2010-11 – and an upswing in employment.

Reviewing Florida’s housing market, Toole said that inventories of for-sale homes have fallen to 7.4 months on a statewide average, and just 5.4 months for listings priced under $250,000. He added that lender-owned properties (REOs or “real estate owned”) now constitute about 6 percent of inventory, but 40 percent of sales. Short sales, where the market value of the home is below the mortgage loan value, make up about 31 percent of current inventory and 18 percent of sales.

Toole added that property management and leasing will be an increasingly important segment of the market in 2012, reaching $11 billion or more, due to the large numbers of investor buyers and “dark” multifamily buildings with few owners.

Turning to the state’s commercial markets, Shelton said investors are increasingly interested in buying office, retail and industrial properties. Vacancy rates, while high, have stabilized, along with rental rates. “Core assets (essential to businesses) are selling and lenders – including the life insurance companies – are lending again,” she said.

Shelton added that lenders are getting more realistic regarding the pricing needed to dispose of their distressed commercial properties. “There are great opportunities for Realtors to find owner-users with the funds to purchase buildings they have been renting,” she said.

Looking ahead to 2012, Shelton said she expects more tenants to come into the Florida commercial markets, helping to stabilize conditions. “I think Florida has bright days ahead, as more people seek to own investment real estate in our market.”

Saunders said the state’s land market is also highly diverse, ranging from cropland, pastures and timberland to transitional and infill land located in suburban and urban locations. “Land has both an investment angle and a romantic angle,” he said. “You can own it, walk on it and enjoy it.”

Overall, Florida has about 34.7 million acres of land, with only 3 million acres now developed, he said. Local, state and federal governments own about 10 million acres.

“As real estate professionals, you have to understand how the various types of land are affected by global trends and local market conditions,” Saunders said. “For example, the price of a citrus grove is closely tied to the commodity market, and a lot of investors are now active in that sector on a national level.” However, Florida has seen a 34 percent decrease in its citrus acreage in the last six years, he added.

For the next few years, Saunders expects little demand for transitional land on the edge of the state’s cities. “There is a lot of existing commercial space that needs to be absorbed first,” he said. “There is pent-up demand for residential lots, but when that demand will be released is a big question.”

In the 2012 land market, Saunders said the biggest opportunities are likely to occur in the agricultural sector, as institutional investors purchase productive cropland to diversify their portfolios. “Take a look at alternative energy producers, as well,” he added. “They may be interested in buying acreage to support their biomass energy facilities.”

© 2011 Florida Realtors®

At the recent Florida Realtors’ 2012 Real Estate and Economic Forecast Conference, Chief Economist Dr. John Tuccillo stressed the slow but steady upward trends in Florida housing and employment, both of which have been overlooked. With prices at attractive levels, investors are back in the market and the distressed property market has stabilized. International demand has risen over the last year, adding to the positive trends in Florida real estate. Realtor panelist Clark Toole agreed, citing the increases in population and employment as positive drivers for the state’s economy.

In Florida and nationwide, restrictions on credit have slowed the real estate market’s recovery. While the average credit scores of approved loans under “normal” circumstances are around 720, in 2009 and 2010 the average was around 760. Easing credit conditions to “normal” could increase sales 15-20% higher. Dr. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, shared his belief that there will be a 10% price increase in South Florida as bargain hunters and foreign buyers boost sales – taking advantage of prices that are too good to pass up.

Even experts outside the industry agree that Florida should have positive growth in 2012. While Florida employment growth has been weak and its recovery sluggish, Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wells Fargo, also had encouraging remarks on the state. He pinpointed tourism and healthcare as leaders in the employment recovery. International visitors to Florida’s many vacation destinations have boosted tourism, while concurrently stepping up as investors in the state’s housing market. Vitner indicated specific areas in the state where prices have bottomed-out and employment has turned around.

The Florida recovery is a marathon, not a sprint. Although the pace is frustrating at times, this slow and steady improvement is good for Florida. The state is moving in the right direction. Realtors can encourage positive thinking about the real estate market with their clients and back up their case with the facts. The national consumer sentiment number of 67.7 beat last month’s 64.1 and the analysts’ forecast, showcasing that consumers’ attitudes are brighter across the U.S. Consumer sentiment has improved each of the last four months. As perceptions shift to better match reality, sales and your business should change for the better.

– Erica Cross, research analyst, Florida Realtors

Two national studies – one from Realtor.com and one from Trulia – suggest that some Florida markets are poised for a real estate rebound.

“This is a positive trend for Florida,” says John Tuccillo, Florida Realtors chief economist. “While Trulia and Realtor.com aren’t completely accurate in home prices and sales – mainly because they base their numbers on only homes listed on their website – it’s useful to look at visitor behavior and note the trends. If Trulia says more visitors are doing a home search in the Miami market, for example, it probably follows that Miami is experiencing an upswing in demand.”

Realtor.com’s Top Ten Turnaround Report

In Realtor.com’s “Top Ten Turnaround Report,” six Florida cities were considered good bets for an upswing in sales. Realtor.com, which is owned by The National Association of Realtors®, says it created a formula to rank a city’s turnaround potential based on recent price appreciation, changes in inventory, median age of inventory, number of Realtor.com searches by visitors and area unemployment.

Realtor.com attributes the Florida cities’ success to year-over-year home price increases, reductions in inventory, lower unemployment rates and, in some cases, an upswing in international buyers.

Realtor.com’s turnaround list includes:

1. Miami: Ranked No. 1 in the report, Miami hit the top based on “a healthy inventory that is only half the size from a year ago,” a lower foreclosure rate than the national average, and an increase in condo sales.
2.  Orlando: While No. 2, Realtor.com says Orlando had more home searches than any other city when compared to the total number of listings. It also had a significant drop in the number of foreclosures.
3. Fort Myers-Cape Coral: Median prices in Fort Myers-Cape Coral have increased year-over-year, foreclosures are down, inventory is lower and foreign buyers are attracted to the area’s real estate prices.
4. Phoenix-Mesa, Ariz.
5. Fort Lauderdale: Inventory has decreased and prices have increased, says Realtor.com.
6. Sarasota-Bradenton: About one in 10 foreign buyers look in Sarasota-Bradenton for a home, Realtor.com says. Listing prices have increased and inventory has decreased.
7. Lakeland-Winter Haven: According to Realtor.com, the number of distressed sales has decreased significantly and prices have gone up.
8. Boise City, Idaho
9. Fort Wayne, Ind.
10. Ann Arbor, Mich.

Trulia’s Metro Movers Report

Trulia has debuted a new report that analyzed its home searches.

In one study, Trulia looked at the number of people who searched for housing in a city – including renters – and compared it to the number of city residents looking elsewhere for a home. An area with a high number of inbound searches and a low number of outbound searches, Trulia reasons, suggests an increased demand for housing.

According to the study, the North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota area had six times more searches by inbound people than outbound people, landing it in the list’s No. 1 position, but four other Florida cities also made the top 10 list:

1. North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota
2. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
3. Charleston-North Charleston-Summerville, SC
4. Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach
5. Cape Coral-Fort Myers
6. West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach
7. Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
8. Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
9. Las Vegas-Paradise, NV
10. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford

Trulia also looked at the Chicago and New York City markets to see where residents wanted to move. Three Florida cities ranked in the top 10 for Chicago residents: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (No. 4), Cape Coral-Fort Myers (No. 6) and Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford (No. 10).

In New York City, five Florida cities made the list: Miami-Miami-Beach-Kendall (No. 2), Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford (No. 3), West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach (No. 5), Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach (No. 6) and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater (No. 7).

© 2011 Florida Realtors®

Nationwide, the average list price is $320,325, up 2.36 percent year-over-year.

Here are the top 15 cities boasting the highest percentage of year-over-year increases in average list prices.

1. Miami
Average list price: $640,332
Year-over-year increase: 27.4%

2. Fort Myers-Cape Coral, Fla.
Average list price: $443,570
Year-over-year increase: 26.27%

3. Central-Fla. rural service area
Average list price: $405,809
Year-over-year increase: 19.41%

4. Punta Gorda, Fla.
Average list price: $267,066
Year-over-year increase: 16.37%

5. Macon, Ga.
Average list price: $193,520
Year-over-year increase: 15.98%

6. Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla.
Average list price: $466,785
Year-over-year increase: 15.86%

7. Naples, Fla.
Average list price: $713,087
Year-over-year increase: 15.13%

8. West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, Fla.
Average list price: $591,895
Year-over-year increase: 14.68%

9. Ocala, Fla.
Average list price: $193,360
Year-over-year increase: 12.07%

10. Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.
Average list price: $181,409
Year-over-year increase: 11.48%

11. Orlando, Fla.
Average list price: $319,419
Year-over-year increase: 10.56%

12. Portland-Vancouver, Ore.-Wash.
Average list price: $314,537
Year-over-year increase: 10.52%

13. Boise City, Idaho
Average list price: $212,588
Year-over-year increase: 10.43%

14. Springfield, Illinois
Average list price: $174,537
Year-over-year increase: 9.12%

15. Shreveport-Bossier City, La.
Average list price: $211,414
Year-over-year increase: 8.34%

Source: Melissa Dittmann Tracey, Realtor® Magazine Daily News

Fair Isaac, which developed FICO scores, used a comparison between two people to explain how mortgage delinquencies affect credit scores.

Fair Isaac derived these numbers from a theoretical calculation based on hypothetical borrowers – one with an initial score of 680 and one with an initial score of 780. FICO scores range from 300 to 850.

The hypothetical person behind the 680 score had six credit accounts, while the person with the 780 score had 10. The consumer with the 780 score had no missed payments other than the mortgage; the 680 example had two late payments before they failed to pay the mortgage.

After a mortgage payment problem, the two scores would look like this:

• After a 30-day delinquency, the 680 score drops to somewhere between 620 and 640; the 780 score declines to 670 to 690.
• After a 90-day delinquency, the 680 score falls somewhere between 595 and 610; the 780 score goes to 645 to 665.
• After a foreclosure, short sale or deed-in-lieu, the 680 goes somewhere between 575 and 595 and 780 drops to 620 to 640.
• After a bankruptcy, the 680 drops somewhere between 530 and 550; the 780 declines to 540 to 560.

Source: CNN, Les Christie (04/22/2010)

“If you’re in the market for a home, the world is your oyster. Interest rates are at record lows. Housing prices in many parts of the country are still depressed. And you may be eligible for a generous tax break, even if the home you buy isn’t your first.

On Nov. 6, President Obama signed legislation that provides a $6,500 tax credit for some current homeowners who buy another home. The law also extends the $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers, scheduled to expire Nov. 30, until next spring.

A lot of people are interested in taking advantage of this tax break, but the expanded credit also has whipped up a lot of confusion. Here are some answers to frequently asked questions:

Q: How do I qualify for the $6,500 credit?

A: This credit is available for homebuyers who sign a binding contract on a new or existing home by April 30, 2010, and settle by July 1 (deadlines that also apply to the first-time homebuyer credit). You must have lived in your existing home for five consecutive years out of the last eight. The home you purchase must be your primary residence. However, the law doesn’t require you to sell your old home, says Bob Meighan, vice president at TurboTax, the tax software provider. You can use it as a second home or a rental and still claim the credit, he says.

Q: I sold a home I had lived in for more than five years and bought a new one in August. Do I qualify for a tax credit?

A: No. For existing homeowners, the $6,500 credit is limited to homes purchased after Nov. 6.

Q: Does the home I buy have to be more expensive than the one I own now?

A: No. While the real estate industry is hopeful that homeowners will use this credit to buy a nicer place, there’s no prohibition against using it to downsize, Meighan says. That makes this credit particularly useful for seniors who are interested in moving into a smaller home.

If you are planning to move up, keep in mind that you can’t claim the credit if the purchase price of the home exceeds $800,000. Unlike some other tax credits, this one doesn’t slowly phase out once you exceed the threshold, Meighan says. If you buy a home for more than $800,000 – and that refers to the purchase price, not the assessed value or the amount of your mortgage – you are ineligible for the credit, period.

The $800,000 cap also applies to first-time homebuyers, but only those who purchase a home after Nov. 6. First-time homebuyers who bought a home for more than $800,000 between Jan. 1 and Nov. 6 can still claim the credit, assuming they meet the other criteria, Meighan says.

Q: I’m an existing homeowner, and would like to build a new home. Can I claim the credit?

A: Yes, but make sure your builder is good at meeting deadlines. You can claim the credit as long as you have a binding contract in place by April 30 and close by July 1. In the case of a new home, the closing date is the day you move in, Meighan says. If your home isn’t habitable by June 30, you won’t be able to claim the credit, he says.

Q: I bought a home in 2008 and claimed the old $7,500 first-time homebuyers credit, which must be repaid over 15 years. Did the new law change that rule?

A: No. That credit, which was available for homes purchased between April 9, 2008, and Dec. 31, 2008, must still be repaid.

The $8,000 first-time homebuyer credit, available for homes purchased after Dec. 31, 2008, doesn’t have to be repaid as long as you remain in the home for at least three years. Existing homeowners who qualify for the $6,500 credit don’t have to repay that money, either, as long as they meet the three-year requirement.

Q: We have a rental home and would like to sell it to our son, who has never owned a home. Would he qualify for the first-time homebuyer credit?

A: No. The legislation specifically prohibits taxpayers from claiming the credit if the sale is between “related parties,” Meighan says. A home sale to a parent, grandparent, child or grandchild would fall into that category.

Q: I sold my home this year and have been renting since. If I buy a new home, do I qualify for the expanded credit?

A: Yes, as long as you meet all of the other requirements, says Mel Schwarz, partner with Grant Thornton in Washington, D.C. The eight-year period used to determine eligibility ends on the day you buy your new home, he says.”

For millions of Americans, “consultant” or “freelancer” is a euphemism for “unemployed.”

But whether you’re self-employed by choice or circumstances, there’s a lot you can do between now and year’s end to reduce your 2009 tax bill. One of the advantages of self-employment is that you have more control over your tax destiny than folks who have their taxes withheld from their paychecks. Some examples of tax-saving steps you can take before the end of the year:

Purchase needed materials. When you’re self-employed, everything you buy for your business, from manila envelopes to a new computer, is deductible. By making those purchases now, you can deduct the expense on your 2009 tax return instead of waiting until next year, says Mary Canning, dean of the school of taxation and accounting at Golden Gate University in San Francisco.

“If you’re thinking your laptop isn’t functioning very well or you need a new scanner, this might be the time to do that kind of purchase,” Canning says.

A purchase made with a credit card counts as a 2009 expense, even if you don’t pay the bill until 2010, Canning says.

Make sure you keep receipts and other records for these purchases, says Justin Ransome, partner in Grant Thornton’s National Tax Office. If you’re audited, the IRS will ask you to prove that these were legitimate business expenses, he says.

Delay income. If you’re employed, your company probably won’t agree to hold on to your last paycheck until Jan. 1 (although this sometimes works if you’re due a bonus or commission). But if you’re working for yourself, your clients may be happy to wait until next year to pay you for recent services.

Use health insurance tax breaks. Most workers who are covered by their employer’s health insurance can’t deduct their portion of the premium. Out-of-pocket expenses aren’t deductible unless they exceed 7.5 percent of adjusted gross income.

For the self-employed, though, 100 percent of health insurance premiums are deductible, says Mark Luscombe, tax analyst for tax publisher CCH. You can also deduct the cost of providing health insurance for your spouse and your dependents. However, the deduction can’t exceed the net income of your business.

If you purchased an individual insurance policy, you may be eligible to contribute to a health savings account. Contributions to a health savings account can be used to pay for deductibles and other costs that aren’t reimbursed by your insurance plan.

Unlike the flexible spending accounts offered by many employers, money remaining in HSAs at year’s end can be rolled over to future years. Self-employed workers can deduct contributions to an HSA, and withdrawals are tax-free as long as the money is used for qualified health care expenses, says Eddie Gershman, a partner with Deloitte Tax.

To qualify for an HSA, you must have a high-deductible insurance policy, which the government defines as one with a minimum deductible of $1,150 for an individual or $2,300 for a family.

The maximum you can contribute is $3,000 for an individual or $5,950 for family coverage.

Save for retirement. For the newly self-employed, saving for retirement may seem like an unaffordable luxury. But squirreling away even a small amount can reduce your 2009 tax bill.

There are several retirement-savings plans available to the self-employed, but the SEP-IRA is the easiest to set up, Gershman says. Contributions are deductible, and you can contribute up to 25 percent of your earned income, up to a maximum of $49,000 in 2009.

You have until the due date of your 2009 tax return to set up and fund a SEP-IRA, so you can wait until April 15, or even longer if you file for an extension. But the sooner you start saving, the sooner you’ll start earning money.

Start planning now. Finally, this is a good time to review your records and start planning for 2010, says Gale Northrop, a financial consultant for Schwab. If taxes aren’t withheld from your paychecks, you’re supposed to pay estimated taxes every quarter.

Tax tips for everybody else

While taxpayers who work for an employer have fewer options, there are year-end steps they can also take:

Give to charity. Donations are deductible as long as the charity or non-profit is qualified to receive deduction contributions (IRS Publication 78 includes a list of qualified organizations, but doesn’t include many religious groups that are also eligible.)

Timing is important if you want to claim the deduction on your 2009 tax return. Contributions made by check are considered delivered on the day they’re mailed, according to Grant Thornton. Contributions paid with a credit card are deductible in the year the charge occurs, even if you don’t pay the bill until next year. In general, pledges – no matter how heartfelt – aren’t deductible until you make the payment.

Buy a car. OK, you probably shouldn’t buy a car just to get a tax break. But if you’re in the market for a new vehicle anyway, buying one before year’s end could lower your taxes. You can deduct sales and excise taxes on new vehicle purchases of up to $49,500. You can claim this deduction even if you don’t itemize.

Harvest investment losses. Last year’s market meltdown and the economic downturn incinerated a lot of companies. If some of the securities in your portfolio are smoldering, you may be eager to ditch them and claim a loss for worthless securities. But if the stock continues to trade – even if it trades only infrequently in informal markets such as the Pink Sheets – it’s not considered worthless. In addition, the IRS requires you to claim the loss in the year the security becomes worthless, which is often difficult to figure out until well after the fact.

There are, however, other ways to claim a loss on securities that you believe are beyond redemption, says James Van Grevenhof, tax analyst for Thomson Reuters. One is to sell the security to an unrelated third party, which could include your broker, a cousin or a friend (you can’t sell it to a parent, child or sibling). You can claim the difference between the amount you paid and the proceeds from the sale as a loss on your tax return.

If no one is willing to buy your securities, you can abandon the stock, Van Grevenhof says. You must permanently relinquish all rights to the security, he says. You can accomplish this by contacting your broker or the company that issues the security.

Capital losses can be used to offset capital gains from the sale of securities.

If you had no capital gains this year, you can deduct up to $3,000 of your losses against ordinary income. Losses that exceed that amount can be carried over to future years.

The extension is part of a $24 billion economic stimulus bill that will extend the $8,000 tax credit for homebuyers who are purchasing their first home from the current November 30 deadline and expands the program to offer a credit of $6,500 to homeowners who have lived in their current home for at least five years and are seeking to relocate.

The following details apply to the homebuyer tax credit expansion:

Who is Eligible
-First-time homebuyers, who are defined by the law as buyers who have not owned a principal residence during the three-year period prior to the purchase, may be eligible for up to an $8,000 tax credit.
-Existing homeowners who have been residing in their principal residence for five consecutive years out of the last eight and are purchasing a home to be their principal residence (“repeat buyer”), may be eligible for up to a $6,500 tax credit.
-All U.S. citizens who file taxes are eligible to participate in the program.

Income Limits
Homebuyers who file as single or head-of-household taxpayers can claim the full credit ($8,000 for first-time buyers and $6,500 for repeat buyers) if their modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) is less than $125,000.
-For married couples filing a joint return, the combined income limit is $225,000.
-Single or head-of-household taxpayers who earn between $125,000 and $145,000, and married couples who earn between $225,000 and $245,000 are eligible to receive a partial credit.
-The credit is not available for single taxpayers whose MAGI is greater than $145,000 and married couples with a MAGI that exceeds $245,000.

Effective Dates
-The eligibility period for the tax credit is for homes purchased after Nov. 6, 2009, and before May 1, 2010. However, home purchases subject to a binding sales contract signed by April 30, 2010, will qualify for the tax credit provided closing occurs prior to July 1, 2010.

Types of Homes that Qualify
-All homes with a purchase price of less than $800,000 qualify, including newly-constructed or resale, and single-family detached, townhomes or condominiums, provided that the home will be used as their principal residence. Vacation home and rental property purchases do NOT qualify.

Tax Credit is Refundable
-A refundable credit means that if the amount of income taxes you owe is less than the credit amount you qualify for, the government will send you a check for the difference.

-For example:
-A first-time buyer who qualifies for the full $8,000 credit who owes $5,000 in federal income taxes would pay nothing to the IRS and receive a $3,000 payment from the government. If you are due to receive a $1,000 refund, you would receive $9,000 ($1,000 plus the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit).
-A repeat buyer who owes $5,000 would pay nothing to the IRS and receive $1,500 back from the government. If you are due to get a $1,000 refund, you would get $7,500 ($1,000 plus the $6,500 repeat buyer tax credit).
-All qualified homebuyers can take the tax credit on their 2009 or 2010 income tax return.

Payback Provisions
The tax credit is a true credit. It does not have to be repaid unless the home owner sells or stops using the home as their principal residence within three years after the purchase.

The www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com site is being updated. Check the site next week for more detailed information on the new tax credit.

For more information, visit www.nahb.org.

That consensus comes from leading forecasters in a survey by the National Association for Business Economics released Monday.

“The survey found that the vast majority of business economists believe that the recession has ended but that the economic recovery is likely to be more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines,” said NABE President-elect Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University.

The forecasters upgraded the economic outlook for the next several quarters, but cautioned that unemployment rates and the federal deficit are expected to remain high through next year. Forecasters now expect the U.S. economy, as measured by gross domestic product, to advance at a 2.9 percent pace in the second half of the year, after falling for four straight quarters for the first time on records dating to 1947. They expect a 3 percent gain in 2010.

Still, the federal deficit has ballooned and the jobless rate is expected to lag behind, as employers remain cautious.

The unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent in September from 9.7 percent, the Labor Department said earlier this month, the highest point in 26 years.

Forecasters expect the unemployment rate to continue to rise, to 10 percent in the first quarter of next year, before edging down to 9.5 percent by the end of 2010.

The recession, the worst since the 1930s, has eliminated a net total of 7.2 million jobs. More job cuts were announced last week. Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc., which makes industrial and scientific equipment, said it will close a plant in Dubuque, Iowa, next year, costing 350 jobs.

Worries about unemployment are likely to continue to constrain household spending. Personal consumption spending likely began rising in the second half of this year, but is expected to remain low in 2010. Still, Americans aren’t expected to save as much as they have in past decades. The savings rate is expected to be above the 2 percent average of the past four years, but below the 9 percent average in the 1970s and 1980s.

The housing recovery is one bright spot. Forecasters expect 2010 to be the first year since 2005 that the housing sector will contribute to overall growth. Home prices are expected to rise 2 percent in 2010, but panelists do not believe that will stifle the housing recovery.

Inflation is expected to remain low due to the weak labor market and other factors. Thus, the NABE panel — which consists of 44 economists surveyed Sept. 2 through Sept. 24 — expects the federal funds rate to remain at its current record low near zero until late next spring, before a gradual rise begins.

“The good news is that this deep and long recession appears to be over, and with improving credit markets, the U.S. economy can return to solid growth next year without worry about rising inflation,” said Reaser.

Click here for the complete article.

Existing home sales rose 30 percent last month with a total of 13,085 homes sold statewide compared to 10,080 homes sold in March 2008, according to FAR. Statewide existing home sales in March were 32.7 percent higher than February’s statewide sales.

Florida Realtors also reported a 25 percent rise in statewide sales of existing condominiums in March, continuing a trend in recent months for higher statewide sales of both the existing home and existing condo markets compared to year-ago levels. Statewide existing condo sales last month increased 37.2 percent over the total units sold in February.

Fifteen of Florida’s metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) reported increased existing-home sales in March and 13 MSAs also showed gains in condo sales. It marks the ninth consecutive month that a majority of markets have reported increased sales.

Florida’s median sales price for existing homes last month was $141,300; a year ago, it was $201,700 for a 30 percent decrease. Industry analysts with the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) report there is a significant downward distortion in the current median price due to many discounted sales, including a large number of foreclosures. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.

The national median sales price for existing single-family homes in February 2009 was $164,600, down 15 percent from a year earlier, according to NAR. In California, the statewide median resales price was $247,590 in February; in Massachusetts, it was $252,500; in Maryland, it was $253,200; and in New York, it was $210,000.

NAR’s latest housing industry outlook reported that entry-level buyers are seeking bargains, which resulted in sales of distressed properties accounting for 40 to 45 percent of February’s transactions. “Given the downward distortion in price comparisons due to distressed sales, it’s important for owners to keep in mind that this doesn’t equate to a similar loss of value for traditional homes in good condition,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

In Florida’s year-to-year comparison for condos, 4,388 units sold statewide compared to 3,503 units in March 2008 for a 25 percent increase. The statewide existing condo median sales price last month was $108,700; in March 2008 it was $172,300 for a 37 percent decrease. In the latest data available at press time, NAR reported the national median existing condo price was $172,200 in February 2009.

Interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5 percent last month, down significantly from the average rate of 5.97 percent in March 2008, according to Freddie Mac. FAR’s sales figures reflect closings, which typically occur 30 to 90 days after sales contracts are written.

Among the state’s large to medium-size markets, the Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay MSA reported a total of 539 homes sold in March compared to 445 homes a year ago for a 21 percent increase. The existing home median sales price was $123,700; a year ago, it was $159,000 for a 22 percent decrease. In the year-to-year comparison for the existing condo market, a total of 113 units sold in the MSA last month, up 24 percent compared to 91 condos sold the previous March. The market’s existing condo median price was $123,100; a year ago, it was $164,300 for a 25 percent decrease.

Reprinted from the Florida Association of Realtors