Category — Market Update

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday that he expects the recession to end later this year and suggested an upcoming government report could increase confidence in the nation’s big banks.

But Bernanke also said major sectors of the economy remain weak, there will likely be “further sizable job losses,” and the recovery will be slow.

“We continue to expect economic activity to bottom out, then to turn up later this year,” he told the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.

He said he expects unemployment – at 8.5 percent in March – to peak early next year short of 10 percent, but it could stay high for a time.

Some economists have forecast a 10 percent jobless rate.

In February, the Fed chairman predicted a recovery later this year, but on Tuesday, he ticked off fresh signs to back that view. Consumer spending rose 2.2 percent in the first quarter after falling sharply the second half of 2008. And the housing market shows “signs of bottoming,” he said.

While businesses are swiftly liquidating inventories, hurting growth, Bernanke said that clears the way for increased production when demand rebounds. A key index released Tuesday showed service industries shrinking more slowly in April.

Bernanke’s earlier forecast “was much more sketchy,” says Brian Bethune, chief economist at IHS Global Insight.

Bernanke said the economy remains weak. Gross domestic product fell at an annual rate of more than 6 percent the past six months. “A relapse in financial conditions” could stall a recovery, he said.

Financial markets are nervously awaiting results of “stress tests” of 19 large banks.

The results, to be released after stock markets close Thursday, are expected to show whether they have enough capital to withstand a worsening economy.

Banks that need more cash will have six months to raise it before tapping government bailout money. A report from Friedman Billings Ramsey predicts at least 11 banks will need more funds.

Bernanke said many should be able to raise equity or use other means to increase their capital without getting more federal money and that he hopes the program “will restore confidence” in banks.

Some are skeptical. “A lot of people who participated when banks raised capital in the last year know what bad investments they turned out to be,” says Alan Villalon of First American Funds.

Reprinted from USAToday.com

Hopeful signs that the worst may be over for the economy boosted Americans’ moods in April, sending a closely watched barometer of sentiment to the highest level since November.

The New York-based Conference Board said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index rose more than 12 points to 39.2, up from a revised 26.9 in March. The reading marks the highest level since November’s 44.7 and well surpasses economists’ expectations for 29.5.

The consumer confidence survey showed a substantial improvement in consumers’ short-term outlook, including even their assessment of the job picture.

Some encouraging news in areas like retail sales and housing have helped fuel a recent stock rally. Earlier Tuesday, a housing index showed that home prices dropped sharply in February, but for the first time in 25 months the decline was not a record – another sign the housing crisis could be bottoming.

Economists closely monitor consumer sentiment because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity.

Florida’s existing home sales increased in March, making it the seventh month in a row that sales activity demonstrated gains in the year-to-year comparison, according to the latest housing data released by the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR). March’s statewide sales also increased over the previous month’s sales level in both the existing home and existing condo markets.

Existing home sales rose 30 percent last month with a total of 13,085 homes sold statewide compared to 10,080 homes sold in March 2008, according to FAR. Statewide existing home sales in March were 32.7 percent higher than February’s statewide sales.

Florida Realtors also reported a 25 percent rise in statewide sales of existing condominiums in March, continuing a trend in recent months for higher statewide sales of both the existing home and existing condo markets compared to year-ago levels. Statewide existing condo sales last month increased 37.2 percent over the total units sold in February.

Fifteen of Florida’s metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) reported increased existing-home sales in March and 13 MSAs also showed gains in condo sales. It marks the ninth consecutive month that a majority of markets have reported increased sales.

Florida’s median sales price for existing homes last month was $141,300; a year ago, it was $201,700 for a 30 percent decrease. Industry analysts with the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) report there is a significant downward distortion in the current median price due to many discounted sales, including a large number of foreclosures. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.

The national median sales price for existing single-family homes in February 2009 was $164,600, down 15 percent from a year earlier, according to NAR. In California, the statewide median resales price was $247,590 in February; in Massachusetts, it was $252,500; in Maryland, it was $253,200; and in New York, it was $210,000.

NAR’s latest housing industry outlook reported that entry-level buyers are seeking bargains, which resulted in sales of distressed properties accounting for 40 to 45 percent of February’s transactions. “Given the downward distortion in price comparisons due to distressed sales, it’s important for owners to keep in mind that this doesn’t equate to a similar loss of value for traditional homes in good condition,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

In Florida’s year-to-year comparison for condos, 4,388 units sold statewide compared to 3,503 units in March 2008 for a 25 percent increase. The statewide existing condo median sales price last month was $108,700; in March 2008 it was $172,300 for a 37 percent decrease. In the latest data available at press time, NAR reported the national median existing condo price was $172,200 in February 2009.

Interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5 percent last month, down significantly from the average rate of 5.97 percent in March 2008, according to Freddie Mac. FAR’s sales figures reflect closings, which typically occur 30 to 90 days after sales contracts are written.

Among the state’s large to medium-size markets, the Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay MSA reported a total of 539 homes sold in March compared to 445 homes a year ago for a 21 percent increase. The existing home median sales price was $123,700; a year ago, it was $159,000 for a 22 percent decrease. In the year-to-year comparison for the existing condo market, a total of 113 units sold in the MSA last month, up 24 percent compared to 91 condos sold the previous March. The market’s existing condo median price was $123,100; a year ago, it was $164,300 for a 25 percent decrease.

Reprinted from the Florida Association of Realtors